Sealed before tip-off

8 NBA calls for Sat 24 Oct 2026

Sealed9h 06m before the first tip8:53 am ET in New York

  1. Sealed
  2. MIA · CHA
  3. 2 games
  4. 2 games
  5. HOU · ATL
  6. NOP · DEN
  7. GSW · PHX
  8. Finals

The calls

  1. MIA at CHA

    Model
    CHA 62% CHA by 3.8
    Market
    MIA 58% MIA by 3.5
    Tip
    Sun 25 Oct · 6:00 pm ET
    Status
    Sealed, waiting for tip-off

    Model and market pick different winners

  2. BKN at CLE

    Model
    CLE 78% CLE by 9.7
    Market
    CLE 80% CLE by 11.0
    Tip
    Sun 25 Oct · 7:30 pm ET
    Status
    Sealed, waiting for tip-off

  3. MIL at PHI

    Model
    PHI 80% PHI by 10.9
    Market
    PHI 84% PHI by 12.5
    Tip
    Sun 25 Oct · 7:30 pm ET
    Status
    Sealed, waiting for tip-off

  4. WAS at CHI

    Model
    CHI 61% CHI by 3.6
    Market
    CHI 51% CHI by 1.0
    Tip
    Sun 25 Oct · 8:00 pm ET
    Status
    Sealed, waiting for tip-off

  5. SAS at DAL

    Model
    SAS 73% SAS by 8.0
    Market
    SAS 82% SAS by 12.5
    Tip
    Sun 25 Oct · 8:00 pm ET
    Status
    Sealed, waiting for tip-off

  6. HOU at ATL

    Model
    ATL 57% ATL by 2.3
    Market
    ATL 52% ATL by 1.5
    Tip
    Sun 25 Oct · 8:30 pm ET
    Status
    Sealed, waiting for tip-off

  7. NOP at DEN

    Model
    DEN 75% DEN by 8.8
    Market
    DEN 80% DEN by 11.5
    Tip
    Sun 25 Oct · 9:00 pm ET
    Status
    Sealed, waiting for tip-off

  8. GSW at PHX

    Model
    PHX 68% PHX by 5.9
    Market
    PHX 76% PHX by 9.5
    Tip
    Sun 25 Oct · 10:00 pm ET
    Status
    Sealed, waiting for tip-off
Full breakdown for 24 Oct

Record so far

14right14wrong

Sample: 28 graded games across 5 days. 8 more calls are waiting on a final.

  • Model50.0% 14 of 28
  • Market64.3% 18 of 28

The sample is small. With 28 graded games, a few results can swing these numbers by many points. The thin ticks mark the six-season backtest of 7,227 games, which is the steadier guide (method).

Ledger

Every day the model ran, newest first. Open a day for each game's breakdown and the commit that sealed it.

DayCallsModelMarketSealedBefore first tipCommit
October 2026
Sat 24 Oct 20268pendingpending18:23 IST9h 06m5a16664
Fri 23 Oct 2026124/128/1218:09 IST7h 20mceb3051
Thu 22 Oct 202622/22/218:12 IST10h 18m3b58c62
Wed 21 Oct 2026117/118/1118:12 IST10h 17mcb5fdf4
Tue 20 Oct 202631/30/318:10 IST6h 20me14df79

How a call is sealed

  1. Written

    Once a day, before the first game, the model writes one line per game into predictions/2026-27.jsonl: its chance for each side, its margin, and the market line it could see at that moment.

    Latest: written 18:23 IST

  2. Committed

    The file is committed and pushed to the public repository. The commit that added a line is its seal, and git blame names that commit for every line.

    Latest: 5a16664 at 18:23 IST

  3. Graded

    After the finals, a grade line goes into predictions/2026-27-grades.jsonl in a separate commit. The prediction line stays as committed, and any later edit would show in its history.

    Latest: 8 games waiting on a final

Commit times come from the machine that made them, so the history itself is the guarantee: it is public, and anyone who pulled it earlier holds a copy that a rewrite would no longer match. The method page lists the commands to check it.